RSICC CODE PACKAGE PSR-451

1. NAME AND TITLE

PC-BATLE: Code System for Brief Adversary Threat Loss Estimate.

2. CONTRIBUTORS

Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, through the Energy Science and Technology Software Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

3. CODING LANGUAGE AND COMPUTER

Microsoft FORTRAN 77; IBM PC (P00451IBMPC00).

4. NATURE OF PROBLEM SOLVED

PC-BATLE is an analytical stochastic model designed to simulate combat engagements between a security force at a nuclear facility and an adversary force attempting to steal nuclear materials or to cause the release of radiological materials through an act of sabotage. The engagement is modeled as a modified continuous-time Markov process in which the state of the process at any time is the number of guards and adversaries currently in the system. Casualties to guards and adversaries are determined automatically by the model based on combatant characteristics and site parameters. Combatant characteristics which are specified as input data include force size, type of weapon used, posture, percent of time delaying (an attempt to prolong the engagement), proficiency, defense or assault tactic, and degradation in firing due to an individual's posture. Site parameters include range of the engagement, exposure to the combatants, and degradation in firing due to target illumination. Reinforcements to either or both forces can be specified by the user and will automatically be included at the appropriate time. Output consists of data on engagement duration, combatant survival, and win probabilities.

5. METHOD OF SOLUTION

The model uses self-contained data based on military experience to determine the attrition rates for both sides. These rates are then used in a modified Markov process model to determine the number of combatants remaining at the end of the engagement, the duration of the engagement, and the probability of either side winning the engagement. Depicted as a Markov process, the engagement may be characterized as a series of distinct states linked by transitions, or allowable state changes. The direct transition rates between allowable states can be expressed as a matrix which is constructed from the specified combatant characteristics and site parameters.

6. RESTRICTIONS OR LIMITATIONS

Maxima of 500 meters between forces, 20 combatants on each side, 5 weapon types, and 3 combatant postures.

7. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

NESC executed the sample problem in 10 seconds on an IBM PC/AT with an 80287 math coprocessor.

8. COMPUTER HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS

100K bytes of memory are required on an IBM/PC/AT.

9. COMPUTER SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

Executables included in the package were created with Microsoft F77 V3.2 under DOS 3.10. They can be run in a DOS window of Windows95.

10. REFERENCE

D. Engi, and C. P. Harlan, "Brief Adversary Threat Loss Estimator (BATLE) User's Guide," NUREG/CR-1432, SAND80-0952 (May 1981).

11. CONTENTS OF CODE PACKAGE

Included in the package are the referenced document and one DOS formatted 3.5" diskette which includes executables, source codes, batch file and test case.

12. DATE OF ABSTRACT

November 1999.

KEYWORD: SECURITY